Formula 1 in 2007 - How were my predictions?

How qualified am I to write about F1 in this blog? Well on the face of it, not very. I don't work in motorsport or journalism of any sort and as a driver my enthusiasm clearly outstrips my ability (but if you're looking for a solid middle-stint driver for an endurance kart race, I'm your man!). I have a sound knowledge of aerodynamics but this is more than offeset by my relative lack of mechanical understanding. What I do have is an objective and analytical point of view, and a fairly reliable instinct for how events in F1 will tend to unfold.

To (hopefully) emphasise this point, I'm going to dissect a forum post I wrote this time last year in which I made substantial predictions for each and every F1 team and driver for the 2007 season. In case any cynics don't believe this was written a year ago, the original can be found here: http://kevinswatch.ihugny.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=11885

Lets start with what I thought was going to be the back of the grid in 2007:

Toro Rosso
If Super Aguri might demonstrate the benefits of being a junior team this year, poor Toro Rosso look likely to show us what happens when B-teams go bad. Last season, TR at least had the benefit of their Cosworth V10 engines but this time around they'll be using the awful chassis and poor Ferrari engine that ensured a miserable 2006 for parent team Red Bull. Everyone agrees that it's good for F1 to have an American driver in the sport, unfortunately for Scott Speed he's going to have this dog of a car to work with. However, if he is able to steal a few points it would go a long way towards securing his seat in what will likely be the far more competitve, Newey-designed Toro Rosso of 2008.

Let me start by saying that my assumption, based on the FIA's regulations surrounding so-called 'customer cars', was that Toro Rosso would not be allowed to run the same chassis as parent team Red Bull Racing. It turns out I was incorrect in this assumption, but apparently Honda's interpretation of the rules was the same as my own, I guess that's why Super Aguri did not run a rebadged RA107.

Toro Rosso exceeded my meagre expectations somewhat, recovering from a mess o' retirements in the first half of 2007 to become a competitive team towards the end of the season, going toe to toe with big brothers Red Bull. Scott Speed's inability to keep his mouth shut was to cost him his seat and he was replaced by BMW's youg hotshot Sebastian Vettel. Vettel made the car look much better than Speed had and his 4th place in China was only overshadowed by the brain fade that led to him crashing into Mark Webber behind the safety car in Japan, quite possibly costing Red Bull their maiden victory. Oops. Vettel cried, Webber was a bit of a jerk about it, but it's water under the bridge now.

I hadn't initially thought very much of Vitantonio Liuzzi, he struck me as a decent driver who just wasn't trying hard enough and this continued throughout much of 2007. This changed when Toro Rosso anounced that four-time ChampCar World Series Champion Sebastian Bourdais would be taking Liuzzi's seat in 2008. The news appeared to be the kick up the backside Liuzzi had needed for some time and he upped his game significantly in the final three races. He'll be testing for Force India in 2008, but he may just have done enough to convince someone to take a chance on him down the line.

Spyker
The Dutch sports car manufacturer took on a big job when they purchased Midland F1 late last season. Midland, with their limited budget, had struggled to improve a car that (as a Jordan the year before) had not recieved any development as Russian billionaire Alex Schieder's enthusiasm for the sport waned. In a shrewd move, Spyker have recruited former Toyota Technical Director Mike Gascoyne, although he arrived too late to have any real input for this season's car. Expect to see these distinctive orange cars getting lapped a lot in the first half of the season, as they seek to build a competitive package for 2008.

Spyker performed pretty much to my expectations in 2007. They started way off the pace and got somewhat quicker in the last few races. Unfortunately their season was dogged by financial troubles and when Christian Albers' sponsor payments failed to materialise the team had no choice to ditch him in favour of Sakon Yamamoto (with Markus Winkelhock filling in admirably at the rain-soaked European GP). Predictably, Yamamoto the only impact he made was the one that took both he and Fisichella out of the race at Interlagos. This was a shame, as Adrian Sutil in the No. 1 seat began to show his promise after a mistake-filled start to the season, even inheriting what would be the team's only point as Spyker F1, as the team has now been purchased by Vijay Mallya and renamed Force India for 2008.

Super Aguri
Honda's B-team look set to build on the improvements they made over the course of last year, which they started off with a pitifully slow, three year-old chassis while they developed their own car. This time around their car is based on last year's Honda and should be a solid platform for them (in fact, they have outperformed the new Honda in Free Practice this morning). Takuma Sato, the most successful Japanese driver in F1 history, is quite fast but given to lapses in concentration. This season he is partnered by British driver Anthony Davidson. Davidson showed himself to be very fast indeed in free practice as a 'Friday Man' for Honda, but as he has only competed in three Grands Prix he may find it difficult to apply that speed in a race situation. With a relatively competitive platform and a driver line up with bags of potential, Super Aguri can realisitcally expect to snatch a few points this year.

I may have overstated my point with the "bags of potential" line, but otherwise I was on the money with this one. The RA107 was a good platform for the SA07 and the team started out with good pace. My prediction of points soon came true with 8th in Spain, shortly followed by the highlight of Super Aguri's short history to date; Sato taking 6th place in Canada and overtaking double World Champion Fernando Alonso on the way! Unfortunately as the season progressed it became harder to keep the older platform of the SA07 competitive. They slipped further down the grid and although Anthony Davidson provided some good drives, he didn't have the luck he needed to turn them into points

Williams
Over the winter Frank Williams has begun following one the worst years in his independent team's long history. The Cosworth engines used by Williams last season had the highest power output on the grid, but reliability was woeful. Following a flying start to his F1 career, Nico Rosberg's confidence was badly affected following a couple of mistakes and only finished a handful of races between driver errors and mechanical failures. Mark Webber left over the winter and was publicly critical of both the team and his own performances during his time with Williams. Webber has been replaced by experienced test driver Alexander Wurz. Although this has been sited as a backwards move by some, I think Alex will be a solid performer and a good mentor for fellow German Rosberg. His development experience at McLaren will also be invaluable as Williams begin the long, hard climb back to the top.

Williams made steps forward in 2007, not least in banishing the reliability demons that ruined 2006 for them. Alex Wurz proved to be a steady but unspectacular No. 2, his experience enabling him to secure good results in the chaotic Canadian and European Grands Prix, but his inability to set a good qualifying lap cost him dearly and he was routinely knocked out in Q2 while Rosberg often squeezed into Q3. Rosberg continued to show his class in 2007, qualifying well and as the car improved he was routinely finishing in the points.

Honda
Yet again Honda had a strong finish and yet again their winter testing has been truly miserable. Last season Jenson Button's slick driving saw his Honda to an impressive run of results and earned him his first win. What's more impressive is that Button achieved this with a car that was 5-6mph behind Renault, Ferrari and McLaren in top speed. The Honda had a great chassis and aero package, but the punch just wasn't there from the engine. In light of this, the FIA's 'Engine Freeze' seems to have hurt Honda very badly indeed and the usually professional Button has reportedly been speaking of his frustration.

I don't think Honda's driver line up helps matters either, with Button and Barichello being polar opposites in terms of style and technique. Barichello is aggressive, likes an oversteering car and is the only driver to brake with his right foot. Button is well known for his smooth style and likes an understeering car with a passive back end, it will be difficult for Honda to develop the car for both men simultaneously. It's been said that winning is a habit but I think Jenson is likely to experience withdrawal symptoms until he leaves Honda or the FIA ban traction control. With Schumacher gone though, Button is the finest wet driver in the field so his supporters might want to start praying for rain.

In hindsight it looks like I didn't have the root of Honda's troubles pegged quite right. I thought it was the engine holding them back but it's clear now that the aero was at fault. There were defects in the team's wind tunnel and CFD setup that caused them to produce a car that was fundamentally flawed. It produced a lot of downforce, but in an unpredictable and unfriendly manner. At times, both drivers were complaining that the car's handling characteristics were different on each lap. It was an utterly terrible year for Honda and only some shrewd strategy and some committed, gutsy performances from Jenson Button prevented them from being outscored by their own B-team, Super Aguri. Word is Button's stock in the paddock has risen considerably thanks to his professionalism and dedication over the course of 2007, aspects of his character which had been called into question earlier in his career. The same cannot be said for Barrichello, who proved he was a better 'dog handler' than Button in the early part of the season but then drove like a spent force later on. It was the first time in the Brazilian's 15 seasons in Formula 1 that he had failed to score a single point.

Red Bull
After a truly awful 2005, things are looking up for Red Bull. They have a new technical director in Adrian Newey (the man who designed the fast McLaren's that Mercedes blew up) who has weaned the team off their Ferrari engines and on to Renault ones, and their new car is looking good. Mark Webber will be eager to get off to a flying start in front of his home crowd as he looks to put his disappointing stint at Williams behind him. Both Webber and veteran Brit David Coulthard should be in the hunt for points finishes this time around.

It was a varied season for Red Bull. Their cars were still unreliable, with both drivers finishing in only four of the seventeen Grands Prix, and on occasion difficult to set up. They did find speed at certain circuits though and the car was working well by the end of the season, with victory in Japan being snatched from Webber in the cruellest of circumstances.

Toyota
With a budget big enough to make King Soloman blush, Toyota have been punching below their weight for a number of years but an improvement in the latter half of 2005 and promising winter testing suggests that they are moving in the right direction. Rumoured to have one of the best engines in the field this year, Toyota will be looking for a strong performance from Ralf Schumacher, who may or may not benefit from his brother's retirement. The team have also retained the services of Jarno Trulli, who can be anything from blisteringly quick to infuriatingly slow depending on where the moon is in the sky (or so it seems). This might be the year Toyota finally outperform fierce rivals Honda to be the pride of Japan.

Toyota just weren't at the races in 2007, no pun intended. The TF107 was an 'evolution' of its predecessor and looked okay at the beginning of the season, nothing to write home about but in the hunt for a few points. However, what little pace the Toyota did have evaporated in the latter half of 2007. Ralf Schumacher's final season in F1 was a very disappointing one and rumour has it that only his point in Canada saved him from being replaced by Franck Montagny mid-season. Jarno Trulli's qualifying antics were not in evidence, with the car being short of one-lap pace all season, but his workmanlike performances were enough for him to outshine his teammate and secure his drive for 2008. The only consolation for Toyota bosses will be beating Honda, but I can't imagine they're thrilled by merely being less awful than their rivals.

BMW
The Bavarian works' outfit have made great strides over the winter and look set to challenge for podium places this time out. Their driver line up is promising, with the reliable and consistently quick Nick Heidfeld supporting novice Polish driver Robert Kubica, who was very impressive after replacing Jacques Villeneuve towards the end of last season.

BMW had an excellent season in 2007, scoring points in every race and even nicking a couple of podium finishes in a season dominated by McLaren and Ferrari. Their intent to be a true front-runner in Formula 1 looks to be a realistic one, although I think they'll need a truly dynamic driver to push them up to that level and I'm not fully convinced that Kubica is that man.

Renault
It seems strange to be putting the reigning Constructor's Champions as third-favourites, but after their Mass Damper was taken away from them last season, they were really clinging on by their finger nails. More significantly, the loss of Fernando Alonso is likely to hurt them as they may need his ability to drive the wheels off a car that isn't quite competitive. Another top team to be blooding a rookie in Melbourne, Finn Heikki Kovalainen will be taking over Alonso's seat. He's been part of the team for a number of years and so should fit straight in, but I don't see the same raw pace in him that I do in Lewis Hamilton. Even so, Heikki should have little trouble outperforming journeyman teammate Giancarlo Fisichella who, in my opinion, was lucky to keep his seat for this year. Renault's progress over the winter has been fair, but with Kovalainen in his first year and Fisichella prone to bouts of unexplained slowness it's hard to see them picking up enough points to retain their Constructor's title.

Renault were a little further off the pace than I'd anticipated, but otherwise I think I was bang on with this one! Fisichella started off moderately well, with regular points finishes, but from Britain on it just seemed like his head wasn't in it anymore and two points from the final eight races were not near enough for him to secure his seat for 2008. After a bad start in Australia, Kovelainen went from strength to strength, easily outshining Fisichella during the Italian's points drought and getting Renault's best finish of the season with second place in the treacherous wet race at Fuji.

McLaren
Ron Dennis pulled off a major coup by signing now double World Driver's Champion Fernando Alonso before last season. McLaren's disappointing performance in 2006 would otherwise have made it difficult to attract a quality replacement for Kimi Raikkonen, at a time when the team most needed a strong number one driver to spearhead their development campaign. Alonso is partnered by new British wunderkind Lewis Hamilton, who made winning the GP2 series look positively effortless last year. Hamilton's talent is in no doubt and he has been faster than Alonso in all of their test sessions together (though Hamilton has had much more time in the car). The final step into F1 is a very big one though and, like Nico Rosberg last year, much will depend on Hamilton's ability to pick himself up when he inevitably falls down.

I have no doubt that McLaren will be Ferrari's main rivals this season and will likely have the fastest car in the field at some point in the year. However, past years have seen some of McLaren's finest cars undone by poor reliability from their Mercedes engines. Merc have been working very hard to rectify that for this term, but I don't think this is a problem they can fully address in one close-season.

Where to begin? I've clearly undersold Mercedes, whose reliability went from flakey to flawless in one close season, and Lewis Hamilton. I had no doubt that Hamilton would be fast and I wouldn't have ruled out his winning a race or two, but I not prepared for him to be so together when he got here. I expected some erratic performances and careless mistakes, but they just never came. Granted, he drove with his heart and not his head towards the climax of the Championship and that cost him the title, but more experienced men have buckled under less pressure.

As for Fernando Alonso, it's very hard to separate the tabloid bluster from the facts. It appears that Alonso wanted to be treated as the Number 1 in a team that historically does not do that, but beyond that the waters are just too muddy. I don't think Ron Dennis handled the situation very well and Hamilton stirred the pot on a few occasions when he'd have been better off staying out of it. I will say this though, if McLaren had ordered Alonso past Hamilton at Indianapolis and made him their priority, the Drivers' Championship would've been theirs.

I don't suppose I can get away with not talking about 'Spygate' but I'll keep it brief because I don't think it deserves any more attention that it has already received. As far as I'm concerned, and to the best of my knowledge, this kind of thing has been going on in Formula 1 more or less forever. The incentive was always on the teams to secure their technical data (not to mention keep their staff from becoming disgruntled) and there is little evidince that Ferrari technology actually found its way in to the MP4-22. The FIA clearly wanted to make an example of McLaren, to say to the other teams that this sort of thing will not be tolerated any more, but I couldn't understand the logic of disqualifying the team but not the drivers. For that reason, I'm glad Kimi Raikkonen won the title, as there would always have been lingering doubts that the McLaren was not a legitimate design.

Ferrari
For my money, this season's hot favourites. A strong finish to the season coupled with good winter testing makes it quite likely that they'll have the best car in the field at Albert Park. Schumacher might be gone but in Kimi Raikkonen they have a superb replacement who, not insignificantly, has a similar style to Michael (favouring an oversteering setup with an active back end). Filipe Massa is growing with every race and with the benefit of a year's experience at Ferrari already, is likely to push Kimi very hard indeed. The only possible cloud on the horizon is the blip in Ferrari's usually bulletproof reliability that effectively ended Schumacher's shot at a seventh Driver's Championship. Was it just bad luck or a sign of things to come?

Well at least I got this one right! Ferrari had a somewhat slow start, which allowed McLaren to steal a march on them, but they worked hard, were patient and took their chances when they came. Their long wheelbase car meant that they were either clearly faster than McLaren or clearly slower, depending on the circuit. There weren't many races where they were genuinely on an even footing, but McLaren were more dominant in the first half of the season whereas the tracks that favoured Ferrari came later on and I think that helped them gain the momentum needed to win the World Drivers' Championship. It turned out that the mechanical gremlins weren't just a blip however, with Massa's championship challenge effectively derailed by them. Had one of those retirements been Kimi's instead, then McLaren would've walked away with it.

An Introduction

Hello and welcome to my blog, where I'll be discussing whatever catches my interest and that I have an opinion on. Primarily that will be racing (specifically Formula 1), gaming and assorted technology news.

I hope you enjoy, comments and feedback are welcome.

KC